"Failure Prevention" An Economic Necessity In Designing Sophisticated Systems

During any rush hour, tens of thousands of automobiles clog the main highways leading into or out of our large cities. Inevitably one or more cars stall or plow into another, causing a momentous traffic jam. Traffic backs up for miles as drivers try to maneuver around the roadblock. As commuters, we grin and bear the inconvenience, rationalizing the delay as part of the price one pays to live in a modern society. The truth of the matter is that the engineers planning the roads have the know-how to build adequate bypass alternatives into their design. The problem is one of economics -- can the cost of eliminating roadblocks be justified? Engineers designing solutions to complex materials handling problems for modem distribution centers are just now beginning to ask this question in relation to their work. Unfortunately in many instances, it has taken an expensive "traffic jam" to bring this question to the front. In these cases, a seemingly practical system promising an attractive return on investment -- using the latest equipment and computer controls -- was designed and installed. Everything went according to plan until one day a breakdown occurred. .Product flow stopped, and management realized it was at the mercy of the "machine." In such situations, management had assumed it could minimize the risks of the breakdown by injecting extra manpower to operate the system manually and pay the associated costs. What it had not recognized is that manual intervention is nearly impossible with sophisticated systems. Thus, too often -- and sometimes too late -- management found itself footing a very high bill for losses incurred because of major production stoppages and missed customer shipments.