Application of Event Tree Analysis to Explosive Terrorism Risk

"An Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is an established approach for logically deconstructing and assessing scenarios for probabilistic risk assessment. This deconstruction into a series of understandable eventsfacilitates probability estimation for explicitly defined explosive terrorism scenarios with consideration of modes of possible failure during execution (a scenario is defined through selection of a target, selection of an explosive material, and interdiction prior to arriving at general target location, etc.). Further, each event is decomposed into a range of possible outcomes. The physical action or reality ofthe outcome is statistically represented by “branches” of the event tree (e.g., the terrorist may choose totarget a stadium, hotel, or subway; terrorists may be successful or unsuccessful in acquiring the material)."