Capital Requirements Of The Mineral Industry

INTRODUCTION The changes in ownership, management, and operation of the non-fuel minerals industry since the Second World War have been dramatic. World-leading enterprises have lost their identity; host countries have taken over operations from multi-national firms; marketing practices have been drastically altered - and yet the world industry is supplying minerals on a scale far greater than had been anticipated in projections made at mid-century. The world's known mineral resources have been enormously expanded, despite the doom sayers who for decades have been predicting that depletion of non-renewable resources would impose limits to growth. PALEY REPORT One can set the stage by reviewing how the minerals outlook was regarded in a thoughtful and comprehensive analysis made in the years 1950 and 1951. During the War years, President Harry Truman of the United States had come to appreciate the decisive role played by minerals resources through his chairmanship as a U.S Senator of a committee that investigated the procurement and allocation of natural resources. In 1950, in the Cold War era that resulted in actual military conflict in Korea, he appointed a prestigious five-man commission to study the problems of Materials Policy over the following quarter century. Their findings, published in five impressive volumes in early 1952, became known as the Paley report. The text was prepared by expert scientists and economists who spent 18 months assembling statistics, making projections of future demand, and interviewing leaders in industry, academia, and government. [ ] The Commission had correctly foreseen that aluminum would replace copper as the largest volume non-ferrous metal, but it had fallen short of reality by a wide margin indeed for all three materials. Even though the Commission's expectations for growth proved to be extremely understated, it had concluded its report with grave foreboding about the effect of its estimates of demand in relation to supply, as follows: "Consumption of almost all materials is expanding at compound rates and is thus pressing harder and harder against resources which, whatever else they may be doing, are not similarly expanding. This materials problem is thus not the kind of 'shortage' problem, local and transient, which in the past has found its solution in price changes which have brought supply and demand back into balance. The terms of the materials problem we face today are larger and more pervasive." With respect to some minerals, the Paley Report expressed scepticism that, in fact, supplies would be forthcoming regardless of price. Because the Paley demand forecasts understated the actual growth in demand for virtually every mineral, one could logically have expected frequent and protracted shortages in the years since 1950.