Climate change risks to mine closure – planning for a range of impacts

Mining is essential for facilitating human development particularly as demand for critical minerals grows. However, over the mine life cycle, the environment is permanently changed. Once mining ceases, mine-affected land can leave significant legacy issues on the surrounding environment if not managed. Therefore, mine closure planning is critical. Mine closure occurs over large scales often with the aim of recreating resilient ecosystems over mined landscapes with mitigated negative impacts. The natural state of the landscape and the environmental risks over planning time-scales are largely driven by climate. Climate change is expected to impact different parts of the post-mining landscape, from stable landform design (soil erosion mitigation) to revegetation efforts and pit lake management. Consequently, mine closure plans may need to account for a non-stationary and uncertain future climate, that may be both different to the current climate and evolve during the mine life and post-closure. Here a new data-based approach is presented for incorporating climate change projections in mine closure planning, based on the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate data used in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. The approach: (i) characterises closure-related attributes of the future climate, and (ii) identifies the amount (and direction) of change expected to occur, and its uncertainty, focusing on five metrics for demonstrative purposes and initially describing changes in erosive potential below. This provides information on the type of future environment (ie the changing baseline) that mine closure should plan towards, and identifies rehabilitation options that may be susceptible to increased risks from climate change.