Comparison Of Predicted And Encountered Geology For Seven Colorado Tunnels

INTRODUCTION "On many projects, the tendency is to drop interest and support of the geological service as soon as it seems safe. That . . . is a short-sighted policy . . . It would be of further service perhaps to learn whether predictions were reasonably true to life." --C.P. Berkey, 1938 (3) This paper quantitatively compares predicted and encountered shear zone size and location and rock type for tunnels in the Colorado Mineral Belt. The Colarado Mineral Belt is composed of igneous formations with associated metamorphic rocks and faulting. As such, it represents the most complex of provinces for at-grade predictions (27). Shear zone and rock type data are assumed to be statistically homogeneous because of the common geology of the seven tunnels. It is often felt by geologists and engineers that the amount of information from which a geological model is created is so low that any statistical inferences are unstable. In other words, the addition of new data may drastically alter the means and variances suggested by the model. Therefore, predictions are rarely couched in quantitative statistical terms but modified with "probably," "most likely" or "possibly." Comparison of predicted and encountered data from past geological models will permit the "probably's" to be quantified and distilled from the art of geological prediction. To date, two other studies of the validity of predictions have been made (26 and 16). Together, these two studies indicate that