Decision Analysis in the Mining Industry

The use of Decision Analysis is becoming more widespread in industry as a whole, and there is considerable scope for its application in the mining industry. Wherever decisions have to be made, whenever risks have to be taken, whenever uncertainty exists or whenever judgements have to be made, then Decision Analysis can be used. In the mining industry we daily make many decisions involving risk, uncertainty and judgement. Expansion and diversity will only increase the need for balanced decision making techniques. This paper seeks to describe the history and principles of Decision Theory, and to illustrate the various modelling approaches using three fictitious yet realistic case studies. Decision Analysis logically integrates the quantifiable and seemingly non-quantifiable aspects of a decision problem into a coherent, explicit and rational solution. It also allows the decision-makers to see the full impact of each variable or uncertainty, and hence focus on the key aspects that influence the solution.