Delineating Seismic Hazard Based on Incremental Stress-Strain Response in Seismogenic Volumes - RASIM 2022

As hard rock mining develops deeper over time, there is an increasing need to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of adverse seismogenic rockmass reaction to mining. Real-time monitoring and feedback of mine data are used to tactically manage risk associated with induced-seismicity; however, strategic risk management requires reliable tools for forward predictions of seismic hazard. The forward prediction of seismic hazard is strengthened by understanding of potential seismic intensity, which often relies on well calibrated mine-wide numerical models. This paper uses a case study to explore how future seismogenic potential and the nature of future seismicity can be domained according to numerically predicted stress-strain paths at past seismic event locations. Delineation of high confinement seismogenic volumes vs. lower-confinement, high-strain seismogenic volumes at the mine-scale can be achieved, based on a loading and unloading stress path analogue, to refine understanding of seismic intensity. Practical qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve this delineation will be demonstrated. Once seismogenic mode (high-stress vs. high-strain) is identified, detailed analyses of seismic source parameters demonstrates change in seismic hazard between the domained volumes.