Enhancing Production Decisions: Project Scheduling Simulation

Project scheduling is a deterministic technique utilizing single estimates of activity durations. In reality, activity durations are stochastic and can be better represented by probability distributions. This paper describes the development and utilization of a project scheduling simulation which combines analytical scheduling with stochastic activity durations. The purpose is to provide a method to analyze the sequencing of mining production processes and predict the effect of any planned changes. The simulation is demonstrated through realistic examples, such as longwall face-to-face transfer sequencing and the effect of varying advance rates on longwall development sections. Statistical data, to make more informed production decisions, are generated in the form of project activity/path criticality and project duration distributions.