Evaluation Of Methods And Models Used To Predict Water Quality At Hardrock Mine Sites: Sources Of Uncertainty And Recommendations For Improvement

The science of predicting future water quality at hardrock mine sites has been practiced for at least the past 30 years. As part of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), mines and other industrial facilities in the United States on federal land are required to estimate impacts to the environment, including direct impacts to water quality and indirect impacts that are later in time but still reasonably foreseeable (Kempton and Atkins, 2000; Bolen, 2002). Facilities on private land in the United States may also be subjected to State or federal processes that may or may not require prediction of potential impacts to water resources. Other countries have followed a similar approach, largely based on the requirements of NEPA. A wide array of scientific approaches has been used to predict water quality that could result from construction, proposed expansion, or other action at an industrial facility. In this study, we review the methods and models used to predict water quality at hardrock mine sites, with an emphasis on uncertainties associated with these techniques. Because water quantity and quality are interrelated, methods and models used to predict water quantity will also be discussed, but the emphasis will be on how these methods relate to water quality. This study brings together technical information on water-quality predictions at mine sites in a single paper, and attempts to present a straight-forward approach to using and evaluating the results of the methods and models used to predict water quality at mine sites. Approaches developed primarily in the United States, Canada, and Australia and applied in these countries and in other parts of the world, especially in the last 10 years, are discussed, and the format of the study is geared toward use by regulators of hardrock mines. The approach and results of this study could also be used by environmental managers at mine sites and community groups, and allows for the creation of a checklist for prediction methodology used at mine sites.