Exposing Uncertainty in Schedules for Proactive Stockpile Planning

The value of iron ore depends on the grade of the contaminants. Scheduled iron, and the associated contaminants, provides mine planners with a measure of stockpile feed and blending requirements. Blending at the stockpiles is one approach to optimising iron grade, while minimising the variability of contaminant grades. These schedules are typically based on resource models incorporating geology and iron and contaminant grades. Resource models reflect best estimates of trends for each of the elements rather than the potential variability, which is critical for accurate short-term blending. Conditional simulation provides a tool to describe the likely variability of each element. Only recently has conditional simulation technology allowed the inherent correlation between elements to be incorporated into the process. This paper presents the stepwise co-simulation process used to simulate and describe multi-element variability for effective mine planning. A case study using the multi-element conditional simulation and the subsequent uncertainty in the schedule and stockpile planning is presented. This process supports proactive mine planning to minimise unexpected fluctuations in the final product.