Exterior Explosive Model Development and Validation for Application in Terrorism Risk Assessment

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has undertaken a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to quantifying the infrequent, yet high-impact explosive terrorist attacks on the United States (US) homeland and aiding in mitigating that risk through efforts ranging from intelligence gathering, defense postures, detection architectures, partnering with industry to prevent acquisition, and informed medical response. Based on an evaluation of existing model options, a path to the realization of an exterior explosive model (EEM) that builds upon existing models while meeting runtime requirements, maintains consistency with existing DHS chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) consequence models, and provides sound estimates of the human health consequences of explosive terrorism attacks in open-air urban and rural environments.