Feasibility of Applying Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Terrorism

"The United States (U.S.) Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Directorate of Science and Technology (S&T), utilizes a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to explore the risks (anduncertainty) from chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threat agents to the Homeland.This end-to-end risk methodology considers a broad range of hazards incorporating emergingtechnologies, available countermeasures and input from the Intelligence and Law Enforcementcommunities (IC/LE) to evaluate the acute risk to human health due to an attack on the U.S. homeland. The PRA generated output provides a mechanism to examine risk mitigation strategies, critical vulnerabilities, critical data and knowledge gaps and relative risk rankings of materials, targets, classes of compounds and scenarios."