Feasibility Studies - Risks and Sensitivities

A feasibility study will fail its objective if it does not identify and then correctly assess, all the risks which could have a substantial impact on the financial viability of a project. Before this assessment can be undertaken, one needs to understand the risk profile of the entity which is making the decision about the project. Some of the commonly encountered issues when assessing project risk are related to the problem of not being able to see the wood for the trees. In any risk analysis it is important that conservatism does not strangle a viable project; that the variables are internally consistent with each other, that reality checks are carried out and that appropriate expertise is used. Sensitivity analysis forms a part of the overall project risk assessment; however, it can only test those variables which have already been identified in the financial model. The most useful tool in performing a sensitivity analysis is Monte Carlo simulation. When properly used, it provides a more real world scenario than the simple adjustment of key variables by ¦ 10 per cent one at a time. Monte Carlo can provide valuable information about the robustness of a project. Project risk and sensitivity assessment is prone to the analysis paralysis syndrome. The focus should be on quality rather than quantity.