Financial Risk and Probability Analysis in Mineral Valuation

Financial risk analysis provides the tools to examine the uncertainty of capital decisions in new mining ventures. This paper explores the methodology by which financial risks can be studied and quantified. The most commonly used risk evaluation methods, such as sensitivity analysis and discount rate adjustment, are presented as an introduction to a more comprehensive discussion of stochastic methods of discounted cash flow analysis using Monte Carlo sampling. The discussion is illustrated with examples of a stochastic discounted cash flow. The advantages of Monte Carlo sampling in risk analysis are discussed together with its problems, particularly those originating from the correlation amongst the variables that determine the economic output of a mining venture, and the difficulties created by insufficient data, imperfect knowledge and complexity. The paper also surveys the most commonly used software used in risk analysis.