Finding Optimal Soil Restoration Strategies in the Face of Uncertain Future Rainfall Amount

Properties of the soil profile fundamentally control water-limited ecosystems. Soil water availability affects vegetation dynamics of plant communities, but is also affected by these communities in return. Understanding this eco-hydrological interplay and the role of physical soil restoration is crucial for successful rehabilitation and management of post-mining landscapes in semi-arid areas. However, uncertainties exist in both the mathematical description of plant communities within ecological submodels and the predictability of future rainfall events. This study uses information gap decision theory combined with an ecohydrological system model to investigate how both uncertainties impact decision-making in the context of ecosystem rehabilitation. A range of management strategies are investigated to identify the optimal soil thickness for successful rehabilitation of native plant communities in Central Queensland. The results emphasise that thicker soils can counterbalance uncertainty in mathematical description of plant communities by increasing the simulated survival probability of plant communities. However, the influence of thicker soils on the robustness of plant communities against a change in future rainfall amount is rather marginal. By allocating an economic value for restoring a particular thickness of soil layer, these results can be used to evaluate the costs of ecosystem re-establishment with regard to two target measures - the survival probability of the plant community and their robustness against climate change.CITATION:Arnold, S, 2012. Finding optimal soil restoration strategies in the face of uncertain future rainfall amount, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2012 , pp 91-96 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).