Forecasting Life-of-Mine Deformation and Seismic Potential at Rosebery Mine Using a Mine Scale Non-Linear Numerical Model

A detailed, mine scale non-linear numerical model of Rosebery mine has been built for the purpose of simulating life-of-mine global deformations. The model was calibrated using observations of displacement and damage, and was then used to investigate the correlation between dissipated plastic energy (DPE) and seismic event occurrence. The study is unique because the seismic data was collected over a relatively short period using a temporary portable seismic system. It is the intent to undertake significantly more work, but the analysis of limited data shows that a very good, non-linear relation between DPE and event probability is present. The observed correlation is consistent with measurements from other mines where more data was available. With more data, the strength of the correlation will allow the DPE analysis to be used during the design and sequencing phase of planning to better design the mine to minimise seismic hazards.