Forecasting mine seismicity – towards a more established methodology

Mine seismicity is one of the most difficult geotechnical risks to manage in seismically active mines. There are currently some established empirical and statistical methods that provide quantitative measures for seismic hazard assessment in operating mines. However, these methods are mostly suitable for quantifying the current or historical seismic hazard and often cannot be directly used to forecast the future hazards. Numerical modelling is the only analytical tool that can capture the level of complexities required for a meaningful analysis of mine seismicity and therefore to facilitate a reliable forecast of future hazards. However, there is currently no widely accepted and established guideline and methodology for analysing and forecasting mine seismicity using numerical modelling. This paper first provides a background on previous published studies on this subject and then outlines the key aspects that can affect the reliability of the forecasting for mine seismicity. These aspects include a) processing of historical seismic data, b) selection of suitable numerical modelling approach, c) Post-processing and interpretation of the model outputs. A case study is then presented for the Gwalia Deeps Mine where a new framework was developed to forecast future mine seismicity. High-quality seismic data for a period of five years was used for back-analysis and comparisons with the numerical modelling outputs. After development of the method, the future seismicity was forecast for the next 12 months and the actual seismicity was monitored against the forecast during this period. Results of this study shows promising potential for the proposed framework to be applied more routinely and at other mine sites. However, more validations are required at Gwalia Deeps mine as the mine proceeds to deeper levels. In addition, the method needs more improvements and should be tested and validated at other mining operations before it can be established as a proven method. CITATION:Vakili, A, Harvey, F and Greaves, H, 2018. Forecasting mine seismicity – towards a more established methodology, in Proceedings The Fourth Australasian Ground Control in Mining Conference (AusRock), pp 207–222 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).