Forecasting Seismic Potential in a Longwall Coal Mine - RASIM2022

A longwall coal mine in southwestern Virginia mining the Pocahontas #3 Coal Seam experienced a history of mining-related seismic events. The events were never large enough to cause concern until three major events occurred recording 3.4, 4.3, and 3.4 ML in 2005, 2006, and 2007 respectively. Two of the seismic events generated an air blast which damaged stoppings which fueled a mine fire in 2005 and 2007. The mine responded to the events by narrowing the longwall widths, changing ventilation controls, installing a 7-sensor seismic system around the active panel, and creating a mining hazard map to avoid similar geology in the future. All of the actions taken have prevented seismic activity from impacting mining operations, but it did not prevent other large seismic events from occurring (Van Dyke et al., 2018). In 2016, another large seismic event, measured at 3.7 ML, occurred in the gob that was reported by the local media and recorded by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). While the event did not directly impact mining operations, mine management wanted to know where and under what conditions could large seismic events occur in the future. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) became involved to help understand what conditions precipitated these events so that future mine design could more accurately assess seismic hazards and reduce the risk to mine worker safety. Researchers at NIOSH and mine management created a seismic forecasting map that combined three factors: (1) overburden thickness, (2) sandstone thickness, and (3) the expected caving height of the gob. The criteria were developed based on the geologic data the mine collected from core drilling, e-log analysis, and fiberscope observations. The forecast map was able to provide an accuracy of 72%–85% of events 1.5 ML or greater and 100% accuracy of events that were 3.0 ML or greater based on historical data. The seismic forecasting map was applied to the entire future mining area to show areas where seismic potential could be the greatest based on current mine design planning, ultimately improving the ability of the mine operator to assess the seismic hazards surrounding active and future mining areas (Van Dyke et al. 2018). Following this research, the seismic forecasting map was implemented into the mine’s hazard recognition program and is continuously updated and evaluated prior to mining each longwall panel. This paper will cover in more detail how the seismic and lithologic data was processed and how the mine implemented a new seismic mitigation program based on the forecasting results.