Hazard Map Approach Using Space-time Clustering Analysis of Mining-induced Microseismicity

Microseismic monitoring has become standard practice in the mining industry as a ground control monitoring tool at depth. Translating the information into practical hazard assessment tools for the rock mechanics practitioner is the focus of research jointly conducted at Creighton Mine by INCO Mines Technology Centre (MTC) and the Geomechanics Research Centre (GRC) in Sudbury, Ontario. Rock mass damage mechanisms are typically related to stress and the presence of geological structures. Due to well executed de-stress blasting practices at the mine, stress related problems are minimized. However, structurally related damage mechanisms associated with shear zones, faults and joints pose a substantial hazard. Identifying active structures from the dataset of seismic and microseismic events is generally problematic. We propose a new methodology that uses a combination of spacetime event density, hierarchical clustering and principal component analysis to identify planes of microseismic activity, termed active planes (APs). Once identified, the presence and intersection of active planes can be used to provide a hazard ranking for nearby excavations. The ranking is based on the standard Q rock mass classification system, with emphasis on the joint set number (Jn) and stress reduction factor (SRF) parameters. If the rock is treated as a fractured continuum, then, the Jn indicates the degree of freedom for blocks to move and hence, increased potential hazard. An increased hazard can also result if the APs are larger-scale and discrete (faults) rather than ubiquitous (joints). In this case the SRF is used as a measure of the degree of looseness in the rock mass.