Heinrich Revisited: a New Data-Driven Examination of the Safety Pyramid "Mining, Metallurgy & Exploration (2020)"

Although researchers have struggled to replicate Heinrich’s safety triangle findings (Heinrich 1931) for various reasons (e.g., no access to his original database and it is unclear if the database was of a single establishment/operation or for an entire industry), the occupational safety community has continued to adopt and expand the applications of this theory (e.g., McSween 2003). Within the mining industry, the potential exists for operations and companies to use concepts from the safety triangle as a way to inform or challenge the practices employed within their health and safety management systems (HSMS) to prevent incidents (Backlund 2016). This paper considers data obtained from the Mine Safety and Health Administration’s databases and demonstrates the validity of applying the safety triangle theory at the mine level. The results support the use of this theory and demonstrate that lower severity incidents can predict fatalities in a subsequent year where significant nuances and caveats to applying the theory are identified and discussed.