How the Use of Market-Based Risk Metrics can Undervalue Good Mining Projects and Overvalue Poor Ones

In this paper current net present value (NPV) based mine valuation techniques that take into account market and private risk are discussed and analysed. Potential pitfalls that arise from the application of a portfolio, market or commodity based risk metric to a mining project are identified. An alternative non-simulative framework for quantifying and factoring market and private risk in NPV calculations is proposed and then applied to a hypothetical case study in an attempt to overcome identified pitfalls. Mathematical proof that a static discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation can underestimate or overestimate mine NPV is presented, the conditions for each are outlined and the degree of underestimation defined.CITATION:Dube, T Y, 2012. How the use of market-based risk metrics can undervalue good mining projects and overvalue poor ones, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 29-34 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).