IC 9070 Gold Availability-World - A Minerals Availability Appraisal

"The Bureau of Mines evaluated the long-term cost and availability of primary gold production from 135 mines and deposits worldwide. Collectively, the evaluated countries represent 93 pct of world gold production. Total recoverable gold available (as of January 1984) from a subset of 111 significant producing mines and developing deposits in 13 market economy countries (MEC's) is estimated at 810 million tr oz. The Republic of South Africa is estimated to account for 87 pct of total recoverable gold. The United States and Canada account for 4 and 4.5 pct of the total, respectively. Eighty-three percent of total recoverable gold is available at a constant 1984 break-even price of $400/tr oz, and 70 pct is available at $300/tr oz. South Africa accounts for 90 pct of the gold available at $400/tr oz or less.Major conclusions are that (1) South Africa should remain the largest world producer through the year 2000, (2) annual MEC output in 2000 should not be significantly different than current output given constant 1984 gold prices of more than $300/tr oz, and (3) there may be a significant decline in production after 2010 in the absence of major new discoveries and continued development of new mines to offset the depletion of the South African mines. INTRODUCTIONSince the late 1970's the world gold mining industry has been characterized by dynamic growth in production and volatility in price. World production in 1983 was almost 15 pct greater than in 1980, and the short-term trend continues upward. Annual dollar-based price changes since the early 1970's have been unprecedented in both magnitude and volatility. This commodity, which sold for $35/tr oz3 for over a third of a century, reached an annual average $612/tr oz in 1980. Until 1980, the future price of gold seemed set on an upward trend. Since that year, however, world gold prices have fallen by over 50 pct to slightly over $300/tr oz at the end of 1984.Against this background, this study was undertaken to determine (1) the level of world demonstrated gold resources, (2) total and annual availability of gold mine production, (3) long-run production costs per operation and by national aggregates, (4) the economic and technical factors that impact upon cost and availability, and (5) probable future mine production and cost trends."