IC 9082 Mineral Consumption Forecasting: Standardizing And Comparing Forecasts

This Bureau of Mines report presents a method of standardizing forecasts of mineral consumption that attempts to resolve the problems caused by the use of different data bases, different definitions of minerals consumption, and different base years for making projections. Using this method, forecasts of U.S. and world mineral consumption, in the year 2000, for nine commodities (aluminum, chromium, cobalt, copper, manganese, nickel, tin, tungsten, and zinc) are standardized and compared. Also selected forecasts or associated growth rates are used to generate implied values of consumption for 1980-83, which are then compared to actual values of consumption for 1980-83. The economic growth predictions underlying the forecasts are examined, and some general conclusions are drawn. A description of each methodology used to generate these forecasts is given in an appendix.