Mineral Commodities: Leaders In The 1990s?

INTRODUCTION Forecasting commodity markets is like predicting winners in a horse race: to get the answers right, one needs both luck and judgement. Commodity analysts bear some resemblance to racing tipsters as they try to convince interested parties that they have an inside track on which metal is going to win the great minerals race of the 1990s. Commodity analysts share some features with the gentlemen of the turf: • They influence other people in how to spend risk capital, • They don't put their own money at risk, and • If their tips consistently fail to deliver, then they end up looking elsewhere for employment. In order to find winners we need to know about the kind of race we are in and the strengths and weaknesses of all the runners. Miners are not interested in a five furlong sprint: their race is a long distance affair -- after all, the lead-times between discovery and start-up generally approach a decade for mines that will provide the staying power which leaders require in this industry. We need to look at the environment in which our commodities will be competing: in racing parlance, the going. Our equivalent is the economic background: just as some horses are at a relative advantage when the going is soft, so some commodities will do better than others if economic growth is sluggish. If we are going to pick the winners for the late 1990s, and as an industry, make the right investment decisions, nothing is more important than being able to forecast (with at least a semblance of accuracy) how and where the world's economy is going to develop in the next decade. In addressing the question of whether minerals are going to be leaders in the 1990s, this paper considers the idea that it will increasingly be the world outside the industrialised OECD that will provide the incremental growth in demand for mineral products. Economic growth in the Developing World is fundamentally different from that in the OECD, and the pattern of demand for materials in relation to economic output is much more favourable than in the OECD. If we are to forecast the future, we need to be able to understand the past, both in the boom times of the so called Golden Sixties and in the lean years that followed them. This should help us to decide whether the future is going to be like one or other of these extremes or, on the other hand, a return to normality. Having forecast the going, we can look at individual competitors. • Which are best placed to take advantage of the economic, social and industrial trends that we can now dimly foresee? • Which can resist the continued onslaught of the new materials and technologies? • Which of them will best weather the economic storms (assuming that recessions have not yet been abolished)? If we can provide answers to these questions, we will be well on our way to picking winners, i.e., the metals and minerals that will reward their owners with growing demand, steady (and high) prices leading to profits beyond the dreams of avarice.