Mineral Commodity Projections As A Tool For Planning

Systematic projections of mineral supply, demand and prices are an integral part of the mineral sector planning process. As such, their primary value is not as prophecies but as devices for imposing discipline on thinking about the future and as means of ensuring consistency in policy decisions. Both the present and the broad outline of the future as presently discernable affect projections on specific minerals. The present world mineral situation reflects most prominantly the recent commodity cycle while our view of the future is largely shaped by perceptions and attitudes of policy-makers and the public over larger issues. Mineral commodities are of considerable importance to various countries. This in itself dictates a strong interest in systematic projection activities, the need for which is heightened by the volatility of certain basic variables affecting mineral demand in the world. It is useful for presentation purposes to discuss the various techniques suited for projecting mineral trends under three principal headings, viz., econometric modeling, systems analysis and technological forecasting. In addition, two specialized variants, input-output analysis and resource base modeling, are discussed. In each case, a brief description of the approach and some indication of its application to projections of mineral commodities are provided.