Mineral Economics - Perspectives Of The Past, Present, And Future

INTRODUCTION The two prior Seeley W. Mudd books on mineral economics devoted their final chapters to themes having to do with the future. In 1932, the last chapter in Mineral Economics8 was "The Future Value of Mineral Property" by J. R. Finlay. Both the first edition (1959) of Economics of the Mineral Industries7 and the slightly revised second edition (1964) closed with "Minerals and Man's Future" by Zay Jeffries. We are not inclined in this third AIME volume on mineral economics to ignore the tradition of the prior volumes. Moreover, it always is fitting and proper to close a book about the mineral industries by examining in a rather general way the challenges and uncertainties that are perpetually strewn in our path as we pick our way into the future. Unlike its predecessor volumes, which were written to acquaint the nonspecialist with the economic characteristics of mineral resources and to provide data about the mineral industries, this edition was also designed with the mineral economics student and practicing specialist in mind. Thus it is anticipated that it will be both a reference as well as suitable for use as a textbook. Consequently, this closing examination of our changing perspectives about mineral resources devotes some space to the past events and current status of mineral economics as a field of study. The fears and forecasts of the past can be a perceptive and usually deflating way to begin an examination of the future. As we look up and down the track of time from the 1975 platform, we find that many of the past views of the future were transient in character, others were imperfect in their prognosis, while others were based on fears that now seemed unfounded. But down through the years some of the observations or expressions of concern have a persistency which perhaps reflects some elemental characteristics of mineral resources. On these "truths" rest our contemporary understanding of the economics of the mineral industries. The uncertainties and priorities for the next 25 or more years, not surprisingly, have a somewhat different mix than those that seemed most compelling to our predecessors in 1932 or 1959. So it is appropriate that we review how the perspective of the mineral economist has changed over the span of a half century. In light of the particular interest of AIME on the role technology must play, it is fitting that we close with some observations on that topic. THE EMERGENCE OF MINERAL ECONOMICS AS A FIELD OF STUDY The publication of Mineral Economics by the AIME in 1932 as a Seeley W. Mudd volume marked the end of emerging interest in