Mineral Science and the Future of Metals – 1973 Jackling Lecture

Some of the significant facts that will affect the supply and demand for metals during the next few decades are given in this presentation. This is important because the only hope for intelligent guidance of the national destiny depends upon presenting a consistent and accurate picture of basic problems. The metals problems now fomenting are only slightly less important than those precipitating the energy crisis. Admittedly, it is difficult to generate serious thinking on this subject when the world is enjoying easy access to all metals at modest prices. This is possible because of the current world capacity to over-produce, and United States credit standing, at least up to now, has permitted buying freely on world markets. Although both these vital conditions are subject to change, there is little doubt that if the U.S. financial house is kept in order, we can muddle along for a while on a generally expanding, metal-based economy. But should our credit standing be permitted to collapse, or should there be a tightening of world supplies of metals, the nation would immediately find itself in trouble. Unfortunately, clear signals indicate that both of these conditions are threatening. The metal age started many centuries ago, and with the exception of the noble metals, barely a dent was made in world reserves until the present century. Then, as a result of the pioneering ideas of D. C. Jackling and Paul Gemmel, and the willingness of the McNeals, Penroses and Guggenheims to back ideas with money, a virtual explosion of metal production was propagated throughout the world. It is important to examine the causes of this expansion to determine whether it is a trend that may be sustained or whether it is anomalous and therefore attributable to circumstances not likely to be repeated or continued. This period of plenty is a once only phenomenon. Vast metal resources have been sitting around here for eons, while the world was unaware of or unconcerned with their existence. But when population began to grow exponentially, and ways were discovered to use metals to develop machines to do the work of men and animals, the exploitation of raw materials increased at a staggering rate. And now the realization is dawning that minerals are a wasting asset and are beginning to present supply problems that should begin to be of concern. Two main factors have caused this condition; One is the population growth, and the other is the expanding demand for irreplaceable raw materials as nations become more developed. A group of systems analysts, at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in a book Limits of Growth, has warned that at present rates of population growth and resource consumption together with environmental constraints, a point will be reached within 100 years when the world population will become totally incapable of supporting itself. The authors conclude that this end result could be avoided if a planned equilibrium could be established at a lower rate of population growth and resource consumption. Fortunately, there is evidence that the population problem is moderating. The growth rate in the U.S. has decreased from 2.3% per year in 1900 to 1.1% in 1970. But, even at the lower rate, population will double in 70 years. The world rate is greater, and if it continues, world population will rise from 3.5 billion to nearly 10 billion in 50 years. All of these projections are questionable because the dangers of growing population are now being recognized. A marked decrease in growth rate has been noted in the more developed countries-in fact, it was zero in the U.S. in 1972. The other factor affecting consumption of raw materials is the increase in per capita use of most items as individuals become more affluent. Many economists believe that developing countries such as China and India represent a vast future potential market; but there are others, with whom the author agrees, who believe over-population tends to stagnate development. Nevertheless, it is a fact that vigorously developing societies increase consumption at a rate far above their population growth rate.