Mining Tremors Effect Prediction: Models, Parameter Calibration and Uncertainty

Mining seismicity can be harmful both under and on the surface. ? Tremors are not totally damaging, but destructive to buildings and infrastructure, especially in highly urbanized regions, such as Upper Silesia in Poland ? Destroy the social appreciation, trust and support for mining industry ? To prevent or reduce these effects, engineers and scientists develop methods allowing prediction of ground shaking intensity near buildings and various losses that can result from it Evaluation and prediction of mining tremor?s damaging influence on buildings is usually solved with two steps: ? Estimation of local ground shaking intensity (based on known attenuation relation) and classification into one of several predefined intensity intervals ? Apply supposed relation between the shaking intensity interval and qualitatively defined damaging effects to express predicted effects This makes a mixed quantitative/qualitative procedure, difficult to analyze or optimize