Modeling Future Requirements For Metals And Minerals

SUMMARY Since 1970 the Federal Preparedness Agency has been using computer models to help establish the amounts of strategic and critical materials to be held in the National Stockpile. Fifty-three of these materials are metals or minerals. The following diagram shows the linkage of models used to estimate material requirements. [ ] The starting point for the models are estimates of the major components of GNP for some future period. These may be estimates purchased from a forecasting service or may be produced in-house. The projections are translated into industrial final demands using DITT (Demand Impact Transformation Tables), a system developed at FPA. Then using a version of the current Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output model, estimates are made of the gross output of each industry necessary to support the level and composition of GNP as specified by the macro-economic model.