National Economy In The Third And Fourth Quarters And 1985 World And U.S. Mineral Production Estimates - Third-Quarter National Economic Statistics

Economic activity in the United States picked up in the third quarter, according to the latest estimate released by the Department of Commerce. Real gross national product (GNP)--the Nation's output of goods and services--grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3%, or $17.6 billion, compared with a rate of 1.9% for the second quarter of 1985 and 1.6% for the third quarter of 1984 (table 1). The 4.3% rate is one percentage point above the preliminary estimate reported in the August/September issue of Minerals and Materials. Most of the upward revision was due to the change in business inventories and Government purchases, while the figure for net exports was revised downward substantially. The 4.3% growth bettered by 1.5% the average rate of growth in GNP from 1974 through 1984 and was 1.1 % above that of the period from 1975 through 1984 and 0.7% above that of 1980 through 1984. Of importance to the minerals industry was the $14.4-billion growth in personal consumption expenditures, $10.2 billion of which was for durable goods (especially domestically produced automobiles) and the growing residential investment. The net export deficit continued to grow, however, and investment in nonresidential structures, producers' durable equipment, and business inventories declined. Prices, as measured by the GNP fixed-weighted price index, increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the third quarter, compared with 3.9% in the second quarter. The slower rate of inflation resulted mainly from a decline in energy prices, following second-quarter increases. Fourth-Quarter Prognosis Many of the economic data available for October and November indicate that the economy is growing modestly and will continue to grow over the next 3 to 6 months. The composite index of leading indicators, designed to predict economic activity within 3 to 6 months, rose 0.3% in October, the sixth consecutive monthly advance, according to the Department of Commerce. Six of the 11 available leading indicators were positive: Stock market prices rose, as did sensitive material prices, credit outstanding, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials; initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased, and firms were getting slower delivery of goods. Four of the indicators were negative: Business formations, homebuilding permits, contracts and orders for plant and equipment, and money supply all declined. The average hours worked per week, already at a high level, remained unchanged.