Numerical modeling of a repeated fault slip

This paper reports on the use of the MINSIM-D stress-analysis program for the modeling of two large seismic events that occurred on the same fault eleven years apart. It was found that the first event (magnitude 5,2) could not be ascribed to purely mining-induced stresses, indicating that the largest seismic events probably result from the interaction of mining-induced stresses with large scale tectonic stresses. However, the stress changes induced during eleven years of mining were found to be capable of generating sufficient excess shear stress (ESS) to be responsible for the second event (magnitude 4,3), The upper limit for the magnitude of purely mining-induced events was found to be approximately 4,3.