Oil Shale Suffers Setbacks

If world oil prices stabilize at $ll/bbl, if the US decides on the "accelerated supply" case for domestic fuel resources, if investment capital is available, if environmentalists' demand become reasonable, if land withdrawals are halted, if government grants generous depletion allowances and fast depreciation write-offs, and if many other "iffy" conditions are met-then shale oil production may reach the 1-million-bpd level by 1985, according to the Project Independence Report. In the "base case" scenario, oil shale production would be, at best, about 250,000 bpd at $11 prices, and "much lower if expectations for $7 oil prices prevail." In this regard, the FEA study reflects the conclusion reached by companies engaged in oil shale development work. Thus, except for some new technological breakthrough in mining, the birth and growth of the US oil shale industry will occur only if oil prices stabilize at about $ll/bbl.