Operating Risk (Improving The Odds In A High Risk Industry)

INTRODUCTION As the title of this paper suggests, the author does not believe that risk can be managed. Rather, the objective is to identify the risk which will be present in a given venture and assess the level of that risk which is acceptable. More often than not, the risk which is present is subject to little or no modification. After identifying and measuring the risk a corporation will decide to accept it and proceed in such a way that it will be less exposed, or it will decide not to proceed at all. The exercise for a corporation is different only in degree from everyday judgements made by average people in average situations. However, that word "degree" means that it is considerably more complex on the corporate level. There is good reason for the additional complexity of corporate risk evaluation. The variables influencing a company's decision can be more numerous and the penalties for miscalculation much greater than those normally encountered by an individual. It should be understood that no analysis of risk, certainly not one as brief as the following, can do more than touch on some of the high points. Before examining the sorts of risk which affect the development and operation of specific mines, let us consider the broader aspect of the term with which mining companies, and all other business corporations, must deal. Companies must determine their long-term objectives and strategies within the context of a constantly changing world. To plot their direction they must attempt to read the future by seeking answers to questions such as: How will society evolve? Which businesses will thrive? In which of these should we place our emphasis? If a company hopes to be around five or ten years from now it must make the attempt to answer such questions in order to judge the impact of changing patterns in the evolving business environment. Information is available to allow the lessons of the past to be projected on the future. We have data on birth rates, economic booms and busts, patterns of conflict within and between nations, drought and other forces of nature as well as individual events which cannot be predicted, but which over time, do seem to occur in regular cycles. Ultimately the question "where will we be and what will we be doing a decade from now?" must be answered by one or more senior people with responsibility for the company's future. The compilation and interpretation of hard data by competent support staff, can only be used up to a certain point in determining future corporate strategy since there will be alternative possible futures and a high degree of risk will always remain. At this point those elusive qualities of experience, instinct, and - "gut feeling" - become important factors in choosing a long-term corporate direction. The goals of a company have a significant bearing on its attitude towards risk. This in turn dictates the "hurdle rate of return on investment" which a project decision-maker will require. The hurdle rate is the minimum-discount-percentage-rate applied to forecast cash flows to give a present value of zero to the All-Equity-Funded Investor. The feasibility study for a project is a fundamental tool in the management of risk. An experienced team has an established and well-understood set of ground rules for the preparation and assembly of a feasibility study. The necessary degree of conservation is built in at all levels of study data and, if the project is technically feasible, the hurdle rate becomes a catch-all measure of risk in a base-case project cash flow.