Optimum Production Rate For High-Grade/Low Tonnage Mines

INTRODUCTION The Optimum Production Rate (OPR) is one of the most important parameters in the evaluation of a mineral deposit. The OPR can also be expressed as the Optimum Mine Life (OML) in years since the expected mine life is determined by dividing the OPR per year into the estimated ore reserves. Unfortunately, very little time and effort has been directed towards the determination of the OPR. Instead, "rules of thumb" are often applied to select a mine life without due consideration of the economic implications of such a selection. A "justification" for a particular production rate is often based on a pre-conceived arbitrary requirement for a mine life of 5, 10, or 15 years, for example. In this paper it is demonstrated that such arbitrary selections for high-grade/low-tonnage mines (such as many underground gold/silver deposits) often lead to sub-optimal results. In fact, an apparently uneconomic deposit at an arbitrary production rate may be economic at the OPR. Consequently, investment opportunities may be overlooked if one analyzes mine properties based on arbitrary production rates. This paper analyzes the interrelationships of variables such as production rates, capital and operating costs, cut-off grades, discount rates, metal prices, etc. The analysis shows that the OML for high-grade/low-tonnage deposits is often in the range of two to four years. Although such mine lives intuitively appear too short to many individuals, it should be noted that, in the past, much of the mining industry became familiar with the economics of large scale mining operations. The rules of thumb developed for such large scale operations should not be applied to high-grade/low-tonnage mines such as many of the underground gold deposits. DEFINITION OF OPTIMUM PRODUCTION RATE The OPR is selected on the basis of maximizing the net present value of the after-tax cash flows. However, as discussed later in this paper, the production rate selected for a particular mine may be somewhat higher or lower than the theoretical OPR as a result of other variables such as: 1) the probability or expectation of additional reserves being discovered 2) the likelihood of being able to custom mill nearby deposits owned by others 3) the configuration or attitude of the orebody, which may place upper limits on the production rate 4) the residual, or salvage values, of the mine/mill facilities COMPARISON BETWEEN DIFFERENT PRODUCTION RATES For an orebody with definite physical cutoffs*, or boundaries (such as faults or unconformities), the total ore reserves at different production rates may be identical. Consequently, for such an orebody, varying production rates result in differing mine lives. Although the metallurgical recoveries, the mine dilution, and other similar physical parameters may vary slightly at different production rates, the major differences are the capital costs and operating costs per ton. The ramifications of these differences are especially important at low production rates (up to approximately 1000 tons per day), but can also be significant at higher production rates.