Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Embankments and Slopes

This study introduces a new probabilistic approach to seismic stability analysis of embankments and slopes. The approach is based on Sarma's solution, which is modified through presentation of the seismic force by its horizontal and vertical components; i.e. the force may have an arbitrary inclination. The probabilistic modelling includes Monte Carlo simulation of the shear strength parameters of the soil mass, which are assumed to have a normal distribution. The probability of failure is determined based on the seismic co-efficient, which is treated as a random quantity. The probabilistic approach is illustrated through a solution of a numerical example from an opencast coal Mine.