Project-Scheduling Simulation: Risk Assessment Of Mining Production Processes

The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for analyzing the sequencing of mining production processes and predicting the effects of any planned changes. Included is a description of the development and utilization of a project-scheduling simulation that combines analytical scheduling with stochastic-activity durations. The simulation is demonstrated in two realistic examples: a longwall face-to-face transfer sequence and the effect of varying advance rates on longwall development sections. Statistical data that can provide a basis for more informed production decisions are generated in the form of project activity/path criticality and project-duration distributions. In both examples, a quantitative risk assessment, regarding subjective decisions in underground production sequencing, is presented.