Real Option Value Optimisation

Mine operation strategies are commonly optimised with a net present value (NPV) maximisation objective. There are well known properties of a typical mining project optimised for NPV, including high production rates and declining cut-off grade schedules. In practice, however, frequently there are operations that diverge from such NPV-maximising properties. Although a range of reasons for this can be at play, one possible explanation is that operators intuitively adjust their strategies to compensate for the flaws inherent to NPV maximisation. In particular, NPV analysis does not reflect the benefits of managerial flexibility inherent in a mining plan. Real options valuation (ROV) is an alternative approach that addresses this issue. We compare the properties of NPV and ROV optimisation solutions generated for the same scenario. Our simple case study demonstrates that the presence of real operating options in the optimisation model not only entails increased project value as expected, but also tends to encourage lower processing capacity (with lower associated capital cost), higher cut-off grades and greater use of stockpiles.CITATION:Elkington, T and Gould, J, 2012. Real option value optimisation, in Proceedings Project Evaluation 2012 , pp 35-40 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).