Recent Indications Of A 1983 Recovery

Past issues of Minerals and Materials have discussed such aspects of the economy as consumption and investment expenditures, interest rates, productivity, and international trade barriers and their effect on the minerals industry here and abroad. In this issue, we will (l) look at recent indications of a possible economic recovery, (2) present 1983 expectations reflecting the results of industry surveys conducted by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC), and (3) briefly discuss the contribution of the U.S. mining industry to total gross national product (GNP). THE RECOVERY Throughout most of 1982, DOC's Composite Index of Leading Indicators provided evidence of impending improvement in the economy. The index increased moderately during eight of the months in 1982 and then jumped an estimated 3.6 percent in January 1983 (table 1). While the leading indicators continued to predict improvement, the general economy, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, continued its slide through November 1982 (table 2). Finally total industrial production increased in December 1982 and continued on an upward path in January and February, as predicted by the leading indicators.