Reconnaissance Exploration, Search Theory, And Stopping Criteria

With the spiraling cost of exploration, all stages of exploration must be optimized. Search theory calculates the optimal distribution of effort by maximizing the probability of discovery under the constraint that the total exploration budget is not exceeded. It may help formulate strategies during the reconnaissance phase of exploration. An incremental optimization analogous to the exact solution of the search problem is introduced. In conjunction with the optimization, various stopping criteria can be defined. The stopping criteria terminate exploration in an area during a particular stage. It does not refer to abandoning exploration. The following stopping criteria were considered: the exploration effort in an area should not exceed a maximum value; the posterior target location probabilities should not be less than a percentage of the initial probabilities; the change in the posterior target location probabilities should not be less than a given value; and the change in the marginal rate of return should not be less than a given value. The incremental optimization and the stopping criteria are used to allocate reconnaissance mapping and sampling effort for phosphorite in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt.