Reliability Analysis of a Drilled Shaft Stabilized Slope System (e386e5ff-5c43-4c35-910f-4eb413f46379)

A reliability based analysis method for a drilled shaft stabilized slope system is presented in this paper. In the past effort, a deterministic method using the limiting equilibrium method of slices for determining the global factor of safety of a slope reinforced by a row of drilled shafts was developed using the soil arching concept. The drilled shaft stabilization mechanisms for the slope were treated as the drilled shaft induced soil arching, which reduces the driving forces on the down slope side of the drilled shaft. The effect of drilled shafts induced soil arching on the reduction of the driving stresses in the limiting equilibrium slope stability analysis was quantified by the load transfer factor through extensive finite element simulation studies. A semi-empirical equation was also developed for expressing the load transfer factor as a function of the soil properties, including strength parameters and unit weight as well as the slope geometry and soil profile, the location and spacing of the drilled shaft, and the dimension of the drilled shaft. However, due to the inherent uncertainties of the soil properties and the model error of the semi-empirical load transfer equation, a modification of the deterministic method into a probabilistic method is developed in this paper. The Monte Carlo statistical method is used to generate random variables for the soil strength parameters based on the prescribed probability characteristics, including mean, COV, and the probability distribution function. In addition, the modeling error of the load transfer factor is also treated as a random variable in the Monte Carlo simulation method, in which the mean, COV, and probability distribution function for the bias of the semi-empirical equation are used. The developed theories were coded into a computer program for analyzing complex slope geometry and slope profile conditions. Two examples are shown in the paper to illustrate the analysis results of the developed probability approach for determining the reliability of a drilled shaft stabilized slope system.