Return periods of large earthquakes in Papua New Guinea

An investigation of earthquake hazard in Papua New Guinea (PNG) by a yearly extreme magnitude method using the magnitude 7 earthquake record since 1900 shows that the Bougain-ville Island seismic zone is by far the most active, followed by the New Britain and northern mainland PNG regions. Return period for magnitude 7.0 earthquakes occurring in normalized 10,000km2 areas of the Bougainville Island, New Britain, Huon, West Bismarck, North Sepik and Ramu seismic zones is 37, 60, 81, 88, 125 and 125 years respectively. These areas are much more active than the California Seismic Zone 4 region including the San Andreas Fault, which has a normalized magnitude 7.0 return period of 299 years, calcul-ated here by the same method.Only southern PNG, including the Papuan Fold Belt and most of the Bismarck Sea, are less active than California Zone 4. The Papuan Fold Belt is only marginally less active than California Zone 4, but more active than the State of California taken as a whole.