Review of Coal Pillar Lifespan Prediction for the Witbank and Highveld Coal Seams

"Coal pillars are prone to scaling over time, and are progressively reduced in size and consequently subjected to increased load and reduced strength. The effective factor of safety therefore reduces. Databases of failed and stable pillars cannot, therefore, be regarded as definitive.More than a decade has passed since the first attempt to predict the lifespan of pillars. This paper presents a review based on the new database and pillar strength equations. The methodology for the analysis is based on the fact that pillars scale. The ultimate safety factor (defined as the ratio between strength and load at the time of failure) is derived, followed by an estimate of the rate of pillar scaling, which results in an estimate of the expected time of failure.It is suggested that the predicted lifespan should not be used as an absolute indicator of expected pillar life, but rather as an index – the pillar life index (PLI) – to complement the safety factor and related probability of failure when evaluating pillar stability. A pillar with a predicted lifespan of less than 500 years would be regarded as being in danger of imminent collapse, while a lifespan of at least 1 000 years should be required for long-term purposes.The differences between this analysis and that published in 2003 constitute a strong case for regular reviews of all the empirically based stability indicators, namely the safety factor, probability of failure, and the PLI. Reviews at 10 year intervals appear to be required.The constants in the proposed method are valid only for the Witbank No. 1, 2 and 4 seams and the Highveld No. 2 and 4 seams.IntroductionIt is well known that over time, coal pillars are prone to scaling, and thus are progressively reduced in size and consequently subjected to increased load and reduced strength. The effective factor of safety therefore reduces and it is quite possible for failure to occur after a long time interval. In fact, scrutiny of the database of failed pillars indicates that failure occurred after periods ranging from 2 to 49 years, and not immediately after mining.The factor of safety for pillars at the time of failure is not the same as that immediately after mining. The concept of the safety factor is based on the pillar strength obtained by statistical analysis of pillar dimensions immediately, or within a month after mining, when the surveys are conducted. Strictly speaking, the safety factor as commonly used is valid only immediately after mining, and it continues to reduce thereafter. The ideal situation would be to base analyses of pillar strength on pillar dimensions at the time of failure, but that is simply not possible because the real dimensions cannot be measured at that time."