RI 9379 - Statistical Evaluation and Time Series Analysis of Microseismicity, Mining, and Rock Bursts in a Hard-Rock Mine

The U.S. Bureau of Mines has long recognized the hazards associated with rock burst activity in underground mines. Concern over lost lives and resources prompted this study to further characterize rock burst occurrence as related to microseismicity and mining. A period of over 1,079 days of mining with 101 bursts, where microseismicity rates and blasting were recorded, was used in this study. Statistical analyses investigated relationships between (1) rock burst occurrence versus blasting, (2) rock burst size versus damage, (3) rock burst occurrence versus average micro seismicity rates, and (4) rock burst occurrence versus local mine geometry. Statistical analyses showed that 91% of all rock bursts occur with blasting while only 3% of all rock bursts occur, apparently, independent of blasting. Additionally, the long-term average daily micro seismicity rates appear to dictate when blasting will trigger rock bursts. Time series analysis on the daily microseismicity resulted in model equations that may be used to forecast the daily microseismic activity.