Risk Assessment Software Applied To Large Bomb Detonations Near Structures

IMESAFR (IME Safety Analysis for Risk) is a quantitative risk assessment software tool developed by the Institute of Makers of Explosives (IME) and A-P-T Research, Inc. It is used for managing risk in the commercial explosives industry, the newest version of the software was completed in 2012. This paper discusses the use of this software package in conjunction with data collected for a television series on the reenactment of the ‘London Blitz’, a 57-day bombing of the City of London in 1940. In this reenactment, purpose built structures using period design and materials were constructed at a test facility in the North of England. Five devices ranging in size from 20 kg (44 lb) to 1100 kg (2400 lb) were detonated at varying distances from the structures; each blast was monitored by EPC-UK and the resulting structural damage was analyzed. Data recorded from the blasts included high-speed videos, photographs before and after each event and air overpressure readings. The same data was inputted into the IMESAFR software package to assess the risk imposed on the residents of London during this time. The appropriateness of this tool for evaluating structures built using historical practices is discussed. Data from the full scale tests is compared to effects predicted by IMESAFR. Further analysis of the risk recommendations produced by IMESAFR is compared to the actual damage assessed during the large scale tests.