Risk Indicators of Materials Suppy for Future Photovoltaic Expansion ? The Case of Silver ?

Photovoltaic (PV) system is especially taken notice as one of important renewable energy resources, because PV has potential to provide a certain amount of energy supply as well as without greenhouse gases emission. Considering recent rapid increasing demand for PV system, more expansion of PV system is expected in the future. However, some precious metals and minor metals such as silver, indium and others are used as component materials of solar cell in PV system. Even if energy supply would become renewable, strict limitation of these metals still remain because amount of natural resources and recycling of metals has restrictions intrinsically. The aim of this study is to reveal the possibility of materials supply restrictions for Photovoltaic system quantitatively and to propose several measurements to assess supply risks for materials. Especially, silver supply potential which is used as wire line in PV system as well as PV demand forecast to estimate material use in the future are focused on. We divide underlying supply risk into 5 measurements and analyze them by time series, i.e. price volatility, resource potential, recycling ratio, production type and supply concentration are investigated. Comparing these factors of silver with other metals, the potential of silver supply for PV is presented. In addition to it, we propose another method to quantify country risk applied an insurance pricing model in finance pricing theory and combine it with the supply concentration measurement. As a result, supply risk of silver will increase gradually in the near future because of its resource constraints and supply-demand balances although silver market is sufficiency competitive one. From the country risk analysis, Peru is not only a significant supply country but also has the highest country risk. Some higher risk countries will increase the level of supply risk even if the concentration ratio of supply indicates moderate level.