Rock Slope Stability Comparison Between Deterministic and Probabilistic Block Theory Analyses for An Open Pit Mine

A new formulation is given to conduct a probabilistic block theory analysis. A new computer code (BTAC) has been developed to perform both deterministic and probabilistic block theory analyses. The variability of the discontinuity orientation and shear strength is incorporated in the probabilistic block theory analysis. Discontinuity orientation is treated as a bivariate random variable including the correlation that exists between the dip angle and dip direction. BTAC code was applied to perform both deterministic and probabilistic block theory analyses for a part of an open pit mine in the U.S. Needed geological and geotechnical data for the analyses were obtained from field and laboratory investigations. The variability of the discontinuity orientations resulted in important differences between the probabilistic and deterministic block theory analyses results. The results confirmed that the design value selected for the Maximum Safe Slope Angle (MSSA) for a particular region in the open pit mine based on the deterministic block theory analysis can be on the unsafe side. In summary, the results showed clearly the superiority of probabilistic block theory analysis over the deterministic block theory analysis in obtaining additional important information with respect to designing rock slopes.