Stabilization - Stabilizing the Oil Business

The oil industry can prosper only if crude production is not excessive. This is true for several reasons. In the first place, the marketing branch of the business is so highly competitive that there is little room for profits in it. There are too many service stations, too many middle men or jobbers, too many refiners eager to press their products upon the market. And the battle is between the strong. If any money is being made in oil today it is by small marketers who buy products from the refining companies and sell on guaranteed margins. In the second place, refineries are overbuilt. There is a large surplus refining capacity. If refined stocks were drawn down they could and would be replenished in short time on short notice. This excessive refining capacity is not serious, however, if the supply of crude is limited to trade requirements. True, it may reflect upon the intelligence of the industry, but if there were a shortage of crude for a few years refining capacities would be readjusted. In the meantime no great harm could result from some idle capacity. It requires no computation to see that refiners could not produce surplus stocks of products from a short supply of crude. I have in mind, of course, the increased yields from cracking. Allowance must be made for that. Still, the picture is the same; less crude is required. I think we can have prosperity in the oil business if too much crude is not produced. A proper limit at this point would be felt all the way down the line. It would slow the refiner and slow the marketer inevitably. Once this constant pressure to make more and sell more is off, operations will be normal and there will be some return on investments. Peices in Relation to Production Potential production at this time is very large, and this condition has existed for many months. As a result the price of crude is low. It is below the average cost of production. Nevertheless, if restraints were withdrawn actual production would immediately increase and the situation would become even worse than it is now. Eventually, of course, the