Subsidence and Ground Deformation Prediction in North America-A Case Study and New Method Developments

"To receive regulatory approval for a new coal mining operation in North America, extensive investigations of feasibility and potential environmental impacts, including ground deformations, are required. Figure 1 shows pictures from mine sites and an example mine map with the planned panel layout for one seam of the multi-seam longwall operation considered.The cumulative mined coal thickness of 22 meters in some areas of the operation requires a comprehensive forecast of expected ground movements and subsidence impacts (e.g., subsidence, slope, displacement, curvature and strain). In the frame of the impact study, the prediction of these impact factors was conducted by DMT using the computer program SPS 4D, based on the Ruhrkohle modeling method by Ehrhardt and Sauer (1961).This paper briefly presents the modeling method and explains the benefits and possibilities for its international application. Information gathered from literature studies on subsidence in North America were incorporated into the initial model parameterization. The article shows the ways in which the observed influences of mountainous topography on surface displacements and deformations can be considered by an extension of the subsidence prediction model and integration of DEM information.SUBSIDENCE MODELFor the calculation of mining-induced subsidence and deformation, DMT has developed subsidence prediction software SPS 4D, which is built according to the stochastic prediction model by (Ehrhardt and Sauer, 1961). The model is based on the subsidence theory by (Knothe, 1953) with a specific parametrization of the stochastic influence function and includes enhancements for dynamic subsidence calculations after (Sroka, 1978). In Europe, mainly in Germany and Poland, the model is approved by the authorities as a standard model for subsidence prediction in mining areas. However, extensive research within R&D activities has shown the possibility to predict mining-induced subsidence considering the specific mining conditions in North America (Zimmermann and Fritschen, 2007)."