Tailoring The Financing Decision To Project Economics

INTRODUCTION The degree of success of any new project will ultimately depend on two factors: (i) the underlying economic strength of the project; and (ii) how successfully the parties involved can coordinate their interests to establish a financing structure which indeed capitalizes on the project's inherent economic attractiveness. A project's underlying economic attractiveness is determined by its inherent comparative advantage in accessing the factors of production, combining these factors of production to create a product and marketing this product. Initially, the decision regarding whether to go ahead with the project - the go/no go decision - has to be based on its total ability to generate cash flow returns to project participants to compensate them for resources committed and risks undertaken. The extent to which project sponsors will actually benefit from the project's inherent economic attractiveness is fundamentally dependent on their ability to establish the long-term financing arrangement which best meets the objectives and constraints of each project participant and sources the most advantageous funding. The decision regarding the financing of the project, the "how-to-go" decision, is then an attempt to find the capital structure, consistent with market terms and conditions and sound financial management policies which will best: (i) match planned outflows with cash inflows; and (ii) maximize the return for project sponsors. This article makes use of a case study to illustrate the analytical process involved in dealing with the go/no go and the how-to-go decisions on a project. Though most commonly applied to project finance situations, the guideline described herein is equally applicable to other financing situations, such as leveraged buyouts and debt restructurings, where timely repayment of debt depends largely on the future cash flows to be generated by the entity being financed. Our case study is of a hypothetical expansion of an existing copper mining operation in Latin America. The company, Latin American Copper (LAC) currently has 147 million metric tons of proven sulphide ore reserves. The existing mine complex consists of an open pit mining operation and a conventional flotation plant with a processing capacity of 20,000 metric tons of ore per day. LAC sells copper concentrates primarily to Japanese custom smelters. The mine has been in operation for 5 years, fine copper production last year was 108,240 metric tons, and LAC currently has assets of $175 million and net worth of $135 million. Due to a recent increase in proven reserves, LAC is considering doubling the treatment capacity of its flotation plant to 40,000 tons per day, and expanding its mining capacity to meet the additional concentrator capacity (the "Project"). Project capital expenditures and incremental working capital have been estimated at approximately $210 million. The construction period is expected to cover one year, including a three-month start-up phase. The Project is to be funded by a combination of equity, senior debt, including both supplier credits and/or commercial bank term loans, and subordinated debt. LAC's shareholders are willing to commit a maximum of $50 million to the Project. A government development agency, which is also a minority shareholder, might be willing to lend approximately $40 million to LAC in the form of subordinated notes, depending on the ability of the Project to generate foreign exchange reserves. Commercial banks cannot be expected to offer loans with maturities longer than ten years. The Project is expected to increase the value of the firm because: (i) It will solidify the Company's position as a low-cost copper producer by taking advantage of economies of scale. As a result of the expansion, cash production costs are expected to decrease 7.0[c]/lb. and all-in costs 11.0[c]/lb; (ii) The potential earnings stream from the sulphide ore reserves will be realized