Testing and quantifying geological uncertainty (or a gram of drill data is worth a kilogram of geological interpretation)

When developing a new underground mine, the geological interpretation that guides the mineral resource is crucial to the preparation of a reliable ore reserve. In preparing a robust geological model to underpin a resource estimate, practitioners must weigh the comparative risk of accepting a relatively wide-spaced drill hole pattern, versus a more close-spaced pattern that ensures a high local geological confidence for mine planning but may have an exponentially increased time and monetary cost. This paper details the authors’ investigations into the geological uncertainty of IGO’s Odysseus Deposit, which is approximately 645 km north-east of Perth, Western Australia. At Odysseus, the komatiitic nickel sulfide mineralisation is irregularly cross-cut by nickel-barren pegmatites that have intruded and offset its thick ultramafic orebodies. These pegmatites generate significant uncertainty in the precision of Odysseus’ resource volume and tonnage estimates, as well as the subsequent quantification of pegmatite mining dilution in its ore reserve. To quantify the geological uncertainty in the pegmatite interpretations, IGO’s mineral resource practitioners prepared several geological risk studies over the Odysseus North lode, which is the lode most affected by the pegmatites. These studies included categorical conditional simulation of the pegmatites, preparing implicit geological models with alternative algorithms, trialling a machine learning application to prepare a maximum likelihood geological model, and finally assessing the early results of the pre-production close-spaced drilling to these different models. To assess the precision of the different single-outcome models, the authors’ compared the estimated pegmatite content of each model to the range of possibilities modelled by categorical conditional simulation within the planned stopes at Odysseus North. An estimation confidence score for each modelling method was then prepared for each alternative single-outcome modelling method. From these studies IGO concluded that a close-spaced drill pattern is essential at Odysseus, supporting the view of the Competent Person in 2017 who proposed a 25 m drill spacing in areas affected by pegmatite which had been partially classified as Inferred.